Consumer Reports Money Adviser
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July 2007
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Inflation-proofing




Inflation-proofing
Illustration by Bob Eckstein
I don't know about you, but 1979 is one year I find pretty hard to get nostalgic about. The energy crisis … gas lines … Three Mile Island … disco. But perhaps scariest of all was the inflation rate that year, which hit a stomach-churning 13.3 percent.

Any of us who are now planning ahead for retirement would do well to remember the toll that double-digit inflation took back then on the prices of everything from a quart of milk to a new Pontiac.

But even relatively wimpy rates of inflation can do a lot of damage over time. Let's say consumer prices continue rising at a modest 3 percent a year for the next 30 years. Goods that cost $100 today would go for $134 in 10 years, $181 in 20 years, and $243 in 30 years.

So what can you do about it? For starters, take a serious look at how much money you will be able to withdraw each year during retirement without outliving your assets. Many financial planners use a figure of about 4 percent a year, which assumes a 30-year retirement and an average inflation rate of about 3 percent.

"There's a lot of confusion in the media about that 4 percent figure," says Christine Fahlund, senior financial planner at T. Rowe Price, the Baltimore-based mutual-fund company. The realistic way to look at it, she says, is to assume you'll withdraw an amount equal to 4 percent the first year and then increase your withdrawals by 3 percent in each successive year. So, for example, if you had a $250,000 nest egg, you would take out $10,000 in year one, $10,300 in year two, $10,609 in year three, and so on into the sunset.

Once you've established that baseline, you may have some thinking to do. Most people, Fahlund says, will find that "4 percent is not a lot of money." So you may want to use the time between now and retirement to save more and reconsider your retirement lifestyle and work plans.

Pay special attention to the effect that inflation will have on your mortgage and investments. When it comes to your mortgage, rising inflation can lead to swelling house payments if you have an adjustable-rate loan. So it makes sense to pay off your mortgage before retiring, or plan on heading into retirement with a fixed-rate loan to keep your monthly expenses stable.

When it comes to your portfolio, inflation can wreak havoc by deflating the value of traditional retirement investments such as fixed-rate bonds. So consider investing at least a portion of your assets with an eye toward inflation as you edge closer to retirement. Here are some investments that can help you do that:

  • Gold. Long considered an inflation hedge, gold has had a couple of shining years lately, rising 21 percent in 2003, for example. But it's worth remembering that had you bought gold at its height of around $850 an ounce in early 1980, 25 years later, your investment would have been worth about half of what you paid for it. Also, gold produces no income and can be costly to store and insure. So experts say gold should be just a small slice of your portfolio. To avoid storage and insurance costs, invest in gold via precious metals mutual funds.

  • Real estate. Be sure to diversify geographically and with different property types. The easiest way to do that without spending millions is to buy mutual funds that specialize in real estate and real estate investment trusts, known as REITs.

  • Stocks. Historically, stocks have proved to be a good way to stay ahead of inflation over the long term. That's why many financial advisers suggest that retirees, no matter how old, own at least some stock investments.

  • I Bonds. These U.S. savings bonds pay a fixed interest rate plus a rate that changes every six months based on inflation. They can earn interest for up to 30 years, and you can defer paying taxes on that interest until you cash in the bonds. They are also exempt from state and local income taxes. I bonds, which sell at face value ($100 for a $100 bond and so forth), are sold at banks and through the government's Treasury Direct program. (Go to www.treasurydirect.gov.)

  • Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. TIPS, as they're commonly known, pay a fixed rate of interest, but their principal is adjusted regularly based on changes in the Consumer Price Index. So interest payments, which are made every six months and are exempt from state and local income taxes, rise with inflation. You can buy TIPS through a bank or broker or at www.treasurydirect.gov. The minimum investment is $1,000. You can also buy mutual funds that invest in TIPS. For more information on either I bonds or TIPS, go to www.publicdebt.treas.gov.

So don't forget about inflation, but don't let it drive you crazy, either. Remember: We survived disco. We can get through this, too.